ISIS, which has been on the run from Europe and Asia since 2014, is frantically attempting to establish itself on the African continent by establishing relationships with local terror organisations. In the process, its jihadist ideology has been given a new lease on life in order to increase the Islamic caliphate's authority.
ISIS has taken up residence in several African countries where civil-military tensions have weakened the social and economic fabric. Even among them, the terrorist group favours countries where Islamist politics has taken root. The world has taken notice of orthodox Islamic clergy's silence in the face of Islamic terror groups' rogue expansion in Africa as they flee western armed forces in west Asia and Europe, particularly from Syria and Iraq.
In recent months, both Europe and Africa have seen lone-wolf assaults in public locations, maybe as a result of the strain on these terror organisations. Terrorist watchers interpret it as an indication that even ISIS and al-Qaeda are unwilling to spend personnel and material in massive acts of violence. That much is certain: ISIS has formally ordered lone-wolf assaults in mid-2020. However, this has heightened the desire of these organisations to build new headquarters, particularly in Africa.
The Pentagon warned a few months ago that ISIS State is sweeping over swaths of Africa, much like it did in Syria and Iraq, using "staggeringly cruel" tactics. "By the summer of 2020, it had become decisively evident that the Islamic State was an altered organisation, but by no means beaten," according to a report from West Point, the US officer training institution.
According to the Pentagon assessment, there has been a "marked rising trajectory of reported cumulative attacks and casualties" across Africa, but West Africa and the Greater Sahara have the "biggest and most sophisticated" presence. "In West Africa, ISIS is carrying out operations that are becoming increasingly brazen, staggeringly vicious, and alarmingly similar to what ISIL, as it was known at the time, was doing in early 2014," the report claimed.
After being forced out of Mosul, Iraq, ISIS is claimed to have established multiple tactical headquarters where its second-tier leadership may rest for the time being.
"Through a network of affiliates throughout the West, North, and East African regions," the organisation has "extended its influence across the continent." ISIS has "affiliated groups in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt," according to the report.
In 2015, Boko Haram in West Africa swore allegiance to ISIS, according to anti-terrorist watchdogs. The Islamic State in West Africa, formerly known as Jam'at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da'wah wa'l-Jihd and popularly known as Boko Haram, is a jihadist terrorist organisation based in north-eastern Nigeria, also active in Chad, Niger, and northern Cameroon, and responsible for some of the worst violent attacks in recent times.
Boko Haram, on the other hand, does not rely on ISIS for resources or operational support, and its recruitment base remains primarily in north-east Nigeria and the Lake Chad region. ISIS has enlisted the help of an al-Qaeda splinter group in the Western Sahel, but the group's presence in the region is still minimal.
According to the reports, an al-Shabaab splinter group pledged allegiance to ISIS in East Africa in 2015, but was unable to establish itself in Somalia or the wider region. In Central and Southern Africa, the group's operational visibility has been largely absent. Al-Shabaab, or Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen, is a terrorist and jihadist fundamentalist group based in East Africa. It pledged allegiance to Al-Qaeda, a militant Islamist organisation, in 2012.
A number of scenarios could play out in the face of the strains in Iraq and Syria. ISIS's former chief of external operations, Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, who was slain last year, stated one plan would be for the group to temporarily abandon its statehood ambitions and revert to more classic terrorist tactics, such as operating underground.
Furthermore, in the aftermath of the defeat in Mosul, ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has urged supporters to desist from travelling to Iraq and instead focus on expanding the group's networks elsewhere. As a result, ISIS may attempt to rebuild by forming alliances with organisations in Africa and Southeast Asia.
In the "conquest" of Africa, ISIS is competing with al-Qaeda. According to reports, "ISIS has established a powerful publicity campaign based on its war victories, territory control and caliphate proclamation, and financial prosperity" since 2014. Since 2011, this type of violent extremism has helped it recruit nearly 30,000 foreign fighters. "Potential al-Qaeda recruits drawn to the group's messaging and image, as well as al-Qaeda-affiliated groups and individuals around the world who moved to ISIS or pledged allegiance to the caliphate," according to the report.
However, al-Qaeda is thought to have survived ISIS's poaching and has expanded its capabilities in Africa over the previous two years. It has been able to stifle ISIS's rise in Sub-Saharan Africa, where al-Qaeda has a bigger presence.
Before deciding on any informal relations with a significant Islamic terror group in Africa known as Da'esh, ISIS is researching its actions. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant is its official name (ISIL).
"Since 2014, ISIL has utilised its online publications to contact potential foreign terrorist fighters and social media to directly engage individuals, encouraging them to join its ranks," according to the UN Secretary-latest General's assessment on the threat posed by ISIL (Da'esh). It has also targeted specific skill sets and adapted its message to different linguistic groups by enlisting the help of foreign terrorist fighters residing largely in Syria and Iraq to communicate with people in their home countries in their own language. ISIL recruiters and enablers quickly changed their conversations to a variety of encrypted applications once they were engaged in discourse, complicating attempts in home nations to monitor and probe such contacts."
In July 2020, the UN's Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team issued its twenty-sixth report on ISIL (Da'esh), Al-Qaida, and associated groups, which stated that ISIL, like all terror groups operating in Africa, is professionally managed and thus in a better position to carry out more terror attacks in the near future.
According to the report, ISIL managed the COVID-19 scenario by changing operational strategies, which allowed it to continue attacking in Africa while other organisations' strikes grew less frequent. "ISIL propaganda and media output have mostly been unaffected by COVID-19, but the group's comments on it has broadly covered four categories," it notes. First, ISIL has advocated attacking its adversaries when they are weak and distracted. Second, the pandemic has been portrayed as a divine punishment for the West as well as a reason to rejoice. Third, the group has acknowledged that the virus could be used as a weapon (though Member States report no attempts to do so in practice). Four, in order to protect its members from COVID-19, ISIL has embraced social distancing and has advised avoiding going to Europe as recently as mid-March 2020."
Recent research has looked into the relative strengths and weaknesses of Africa's main terror groups. "ISIL franchises in West Africa and the Sahel, as well as those of Al-Qaida, continued to enjoy operational success in early 2020, boosting international anxiety about regional stability," according to the report.
ISIL-Libya poses a danger to the stability and security of Libya and its surrounds in North Africa, which is compounded by the ongoing Libyan crisis. The peaceful cohabitation of JNIM and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara region has apparently come to an end due to internal conflicts between the two groups.
Al-activities Shabaab's and attacks in Somalia remained unabated, mainly untouched by the COVID-19 outbreak in East Africa. Al-Shabaab ideologues and clerics continued to dismiss the COVID-19 threat and resisted attempts to impose lockdowns in areas under their control. Al-Shabaab leadership urged its fighters to conduct attacks outside of Somalia, emboldened by the January attack on a US military base on Manda Island in Kenya.
In early 2020, ISIL terror activities in Somalia and the Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP) in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, gained traction in Central and Southern Africa, as the group launched complex attacks on multiple targets. ISCAP operators momentarily took control of some communities and addressed residents publicly while waving ISCAP banners. The Mozambique authorities confirmed ISIL's responsibility in the attacks and links to foreign terrorist elements in a communiqué issued on April 23, 2020.
While these terror groups compete with one another to expand their territories in Africa, one thing is clear: ISIS remains the continent's primary terror brand. Local groups are drawn to the Islamic caliphate theory because of its "prosperity" in terms of finances and weaponry, despite the fact that it does not fascinate them. The al-internal Qaeda's problems have also contributed to ISIS's growing appeal.
Could this lead to increased attacks and brutality in Africa as these groups try to outcompete each other? African countries are beginning to recognise the threat that Islamic terror poses, particularly in the form of ISIS, which is not only attempting to expand its operations but also serving as a beacon of light for other Islamic organisations. To prevent ISIS from regrouping and gaining a stronger foothold in North Africa, regional cooperation is required.